Updated on July 28, 2026
Packaged ice cream in China is still growing in value, but prices are falling, frequency is low and several foreign brands that once defined the premium end have scaled back.
By Daxue Consulting
Mintel forecasts that packaged ice cream sales in China will grow 2.8% a year in value between 2025 and 2029, and only 1.8% a year in volume (China Daily (中国日报), July 2025). Over the same period, prices have been moving down. The average price per 100 grams fell from RMB 3.94 in 2023 to RMB 3.65 in the first eleven months of 2025, according to Yicai (第一财经), a decline of about 7% in less than three years.
The pressure is visible at both ends of the market. In June 2026, General Mills agreed to sell all of its Häagen-Dazs shops in mainland China to an investor group that includes the lemon tea chain Ningji (柠季) (China News Service (中国新闻网), June 2026). At the low end, Mixue Bingcheng (蜜雪冰城) sells a fresh soft-serve cone for RMB 2 in a network of more than 46,000 stores.
This article examines how large the market is, who is gaining share, why several foreign brands retreated while others held, and what the new price and channel structure implies for foreign entrants.
| Daxue Overview |
|---|
| Consumption: packaged ice cream retail sales reached RMB 49.8 billion in 2018 (GlobalData); Mintel expects a 2.8% CAGR in value over 2025-2029. |
| Leaders: Yili, Mengniu and Wall’s (The Magnum Ice Cream Company) control the convenience store freezer. Yili’s cold drinks revenue rose 13.0% YoY in the first nine months of 2025. |
| Foreign brands: Cold Stone has no shop open in mainland China, Baskin-Robbins kept about eight, and Häagen-Dazs sold its shop network in 2026. Dairy Queen, Godiva and Venchi hold with a clearly defined role. |
| Prices: after the 2022 “ice cream assassin” (雪糕刺客) backlash, most packaged bars sell in a RMB 5 to 8 band. |
| Consumers: more than half eat ice cream less than once a month; penetration is rising faster in lower-tier cities than in tier-1 cities. |
China’s ice cream market: key figures
Exhibit 1: The market still grows in value, while the leading dairy groups shift ice cream toward margin
| Indicator | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged ice cream retail sales | RMB 49.8 billion | 2018 | GlobalData, via Just Food (2020) |
| Per capita consumption | 1.62 kg | 2018 | GlobalData, via Just Food (2020) |
| Forecast growth of packaged ice cream sales | +2.8% a year in value, +1.8% in volume | 2025-2029 | Mintel, via China Daily (2025) |
| Average retail price per 100 g | RMB 3.94 to RMB 3.65 | 2023 to Jan-Nov 2025 | Yicai (2025) |
| Consumers eating ice cream less than once a month | More than 50% | 2025 survey | Mintel, via China Daily (2025) |
| Yili cold drinks revenue | RMB 9.43 billion, +13.0% YoY | First nine months of 2025 | Jiemian (界面新闻), Oct. 2025 |
| Mengniu group revenue | RMB 82.2 billion, -7.25% YoY; domestic ice cream up at double digits | 2025 vs 2024 | Beijing News (新京报), March 2026 |
Sources: as listed in each row; table designed by Daxue Consulting.
How large is the ice cream market in China?
Measured by consumption, the most reliable published figure is for packaged ice cream sold at retail: RMB 49.8 billion in 2018, according to GlobalData, which at the time forecast RMB 59.3 billion for 2023. No more recent public value figure for the whole country has been published. Mintel’s more recent forecast, a 2.8% annual growth in value between 2025 and 2029, points to a market that is still expanding, but slowly.
A simple check puts these figures in perspective. RMB 49.8 billion spread over 1.4 billion people is about RMB 36 per person a year, or roughly five to seven packaged bars at today’s RMB 5 to 8 price band. Growth therefore depends less on finding new buyers than on raising the number of occasions per buyer, which is the main challenge for the category.
Two caveats matter when comparing sources. First, packaged retail figures exclude soft serve sold by tea and coffee chains, ice cream parlors and restaurants. That segment has grown quickly with chains such as Mixue, and it competes for the same occasions. Second, some industry figures circulating in China are based on factory output rather than consumption. Output data is useful to understand capacity, but it does not measure what consumers buy, and it should not be read as market size.
For a foreign brand, the relevant figure is rarely “the ice cream market” as a whole. It is the consumption of the segment it intends to sell in: single-serve impulse products in convenience stores, take-home tubs in supermarkets and online, or foodservice and shop sales.
Yili, Mengniu and Wall’s still control the freezer
The top of the Chinese market has been stable for more than a decade. Yili, Mengniu and Wall’s remain the three leading players, and their position rests as much on distribution as on brands.
Yili: the leader keeps growing
GlobalData gave Yili 11.9% of retail value in 2018, ahead of Unilever (9.3%) and Mengniu (5.8%). Yili’s cold drinks (冷饮) business reached RMB 8.23 billion in the first half of 2025, according to its interim report as reported by Ruicaijing. The figure reached RMB 9.43 billion in the first nine months, up 13.0% year-on-year (Jiemian). Brands such as Qiaolezi (巧乐兹) and Xujinhuan (须尽欢) are present in most convenience store freezers.
Mengniu: profitability before volume
Mengniu’s group revenue fell 7.25% in 2025 compared with 2024, to RMB 82.2 billion. Over the same year, its domestic ice cream business grew at double digits and improved its profitability, with a focus on two brands, Suibian (随变) and Lüse Xinqing (绿色心情), reports Beijing News. This suggests that ice cream is becoming a margin contributor for Chinese dairy groups at a time when liquid milk is under pressure.
Wall’s: a new independent owner, the same local approach
Unilever’s ice cream business became an independent listed company, The Magnum Ice Cream Company, on December 8, 2025 (De Brauw, 2025). In China, Wall’s (和路雪) had launched more than 30 new products by mid-2025 and operates a factory in Taicang (太仓), Jiangsu, according to China Daily. China is the only one of Magnum’s ten core markets where the brand ranks second rather than first, behind Yili (Yicai, 2025).
Nestlé: still present, through partnerships
Nestlé remains active in Chinese ice cream. In 2025, it ran a co-branded product with NetEase Cloud Music and was the official ice cream sponsor of the Jiangsu Football City League (苏超), an amateur league that drew national attention that summer (China Daily, 2025).
New entrants: dairy brands and tea chains
Adopt a Cow (认养一头牛), a dairy brand, entered ice cream in March 2024 and launched more than ten products in its first year and a half. Its jasmine lychee flavor sold more than one million units within a month of launch (China Daily, 2025).
The larger competitive shift comes from outside the dairy industry. Tea chains sell fresh soft serve at very low prices where young consumers already queue. Mixue Bingcheng had 46,479 stores worldwide at the end of 2024, when it listed in Hong Kong (China News Service, March 2025). In many tier-3 and tier-4 cities, its RMB 2 cone has become the reference price for an ice cream bought outside the home.
Foreign ice cream brands in China: who retreated, who held
Foreign brands arrived in waves from the 1990s. In 2013, Fortune China described their expansion as a “flavorful cold war” (洋品牌冰激凌打响中国市场美味冷战), with Dairy Queen targeting 1,000 stores by 2016 and Baskin-Robbins preparing a relaunch (Fortune China (财富中文网), 2013). The outcome has varied widely by brand.
Exhibit 2: Foreign shop brands that held in China either run a dense, low-cost network or a small, very premium one
| Brand | Entry in China | Peak | Latest situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Häagen-Dazs (哈根达斯) | 1996, Shanghai | 466 shops (January 2024) | 403 shops at end-2024; shop network sold to an investor group including Ningji in June 2026; General Mills keeps retail and foodservice |
| Cold Stone Creamery (酷圣石) | 2007 | 60+ shops in Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Nanjing | Closed 27 Shanghai shops in 2017; no shop open in mainland China on Dianping in 2024 |
| Baskin-Robbins (芭斯罗缤) | 1993, relaunched in 2005 in Qingdao | About a dozen shops, against a plan of 100+ | About 8 shops in Beijing and Hebei in 2024 |
| Dairy Queen (冰雪皇后) | 1992 | 1,200+ shops | Largest foreign ice cream chain; menu extended to cakes and savory food |
| Godiva (歌帝梵) | 2009 | 119 shops | Present in high-end malls of tier-1 and tier-2 cities, around RMB 55 a scoop |
| Venchi (闻绮) | 2019, Shanghai | 46 shops | Expanding in premium malls, average spend close to RMB 100 |
Sources: Hongcan (红餐网) via TMTPost, June 2024; Jiemian, December 2024; China News Service, June 2026; Yicai, January 2026; Fortune China, 2013; table designed by Daxue Consulting.
Häagen-Dazs: from status symbol to asset-light model
For two decades, a Häagen-Dazs shop was a destination in its own right in Chinese cities. China accounted for about half of the brand’s global business in 2017 (Hongcan via TMTPost). Traffic then declined. The store count fell from 466 in January 2024 to 403 in December 2024, and General Mills pointed to low margins and high fixed costs (Jiemian).
The 2026 agreement separates two businesses. The shops go to operators experienced in running large networks of small tea outlets at low cost. General Mills keeps the product, the supermarket channel and foodservice, where its scale matters most.
Cold Stone and Baskin-Robbins: a format under cost pressure
Cold Stone built its network on an in-store experience, with ice cream mixed in front of the customer, then closed 27 Shanghai shops in 2017. By 2024, Dianping listed no shop open in mainland China. Baskin-Robbins announced a plan for more than 100 stores and reached about a dozen; its Beijing Gubei shop closed in May 2024 (Hongcan via TMTPost).
Both brands sold scoops at mall rents in the RMB 30 range. The likely explanation is that this price point came under pressure from two sides at once. Tea chains offered a cold, sweet product for much less, and premium chocolate brands offered a stronger gifting reason at a higher price.
Dairy Queen, Godiva and Venchi: a clearly defined role
Dairy Queen is the main exception among large foreign chains. With more than 1,200 shops, it launched more than 150 new products in 2025, which accounted for over 60% of annual sales. It also added cakes and savory items to draw traffic outside dessert hours (Yicai, 2026).
Godiva and Venchi follow the opposite model: a limited number of shops in premium malls, a chocolate heritage, and a price level that supports gifting and treat occasions.
Russian ice cream: visibility without volume
Russian ice cream gained visibility in China after Vladimir Putin offered Russian ice cream to Xi Jinping at the 2016 G20 summit in Hangzhou (CNA, 2016). Brands such as Iceberry (Айсберри) now export products designed for Chinese buyers (Dairynews, 2025). Yet China’s imports of Russian ice cream totaled only US$1.9 million in 2023, according to Chinese customs data quoted by Interfax. Online popularity has not yet translated into significant import volumes.
Prices reset after the “ice cream assassin” backlash
Between 2018 and 2021, premium ice cream was one of the fastest-moving food categories in China. Zhongxuegao (钟薛高) launched online in 2018 with bars priced above RMB 50, the most expensive at RMB 66, recalls Yicai (第一财经).
In summer 2022, shoppers began calling expensive bars placed among cheaper ones in convenience store freezers “ice cream assassins” (雪糕刺客), because the price only appeared at the checkout. The expression spread on Weibo and turned price transparency into a public issue for the category.
Zhongxuegao illustrates the consequences. After several years of falling sales, the Shanghai Third Intermediate People’s Court accepted its bankruptcy liquidation. The brand had once been reportedly valued at RMB 4 billion.
The data does not suggest that Chinese consumers reject premium products. It suggests they reject unclear pricing in impulse channels. Food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng (朱丹蓬) told China Daily that the price sweet spot now sits between RMB 5 and 8, and that low-end products are losing ground on health concerns.
Chinese consumers eat ice cream rarely, but more widely
Frequency is the main constraint on the category. Mintel found that more than half of Chinese consumers eat ice cream less than once a month. High-frequency consumption of packaged ice cream is declining in tier-1 cities, while penetration is higher and still rising in lower-tier cities (Mintel, via China Daily, 2025).
Flavor preferences have moved toward local and seasonal references. Products that performed well in 2025 drew on fruit, floral and bakery notes such as lychee, jasmine, matcha, yuzu and panna cotta. Chocolate remains the leading flavor, but Mintel notes it needs reinvention to keep its position.
Health claims have also become part of the standard brief. Adopt a Cow launched what it presents as China’s first SGS-certified clean-label ice cream for children, and low-sugar and “real milk” claims now appear across the mainstream range rather than in a niche.
Social media drives launches, not repeat purchase
New flavors are increasingly launched as online events. Adopt a Cow topped new-product rankings on Douyin Mall and Tmall, and its matcha flavor sold more than 140,000 units online in one week (China Daily, 2025). Co-branding with entertainment platforms, such as Nestlé’s partnership with NetEase Cloud Music, and sponsorship of local sports events give brands a reason to be discussed on Weibo, Douyin and Xiaohongshu during the summer peak. The 2022 “ice cream assassin” episode shows that the same platforms can also turn a pricing practice into a reputational issue within days.
Convenience stores, instant retail and tea chains shape the channel mix
Convenience stores and small shops
Convenience stores were the leading channel for packaged ice cream in 2018, ahead of food and drink specialists and supermarkets.
Exhibit 3: Convenience stores sold almost half of packaged ice cream in China in 2018
| Channel | Share of packaged ice cream retail value, 2018 |
|---|---|
| Convenience stores | 45.3% |
| Food and drink specialists | 27.7% |
| Hypermarkets and supermarkets | 26.2% |
Data source: GlobalData, via Just Food (2020); table designed by Daxue Consulting.
Freezers in these stores are often supplied and branded by manufacturers, which makes the leading position of Yili and Wall’s difficult to challenge. The transformation of convenience stores in China is therefore directly relevant to ice cream distribution.
Instant retail and e-commerce
Cold-chain delivery has opened a channel that barely existed a decade ago. Mintel lists cold-chain logistics and e-commerce among the main growth drivers of the category. Instant retail (即时零售) platforms deliver frozen products within 30 minutes in large cities, which allows brands to reach consumers without owning freezers in physical stores. The growth of the food delivery market in China supports this shift.
Tea and coffee chains
Fresh soft serve sold in tea chains competes directly with packaged ice cream for the same occasions. Mintel identifies on-premise tea drinks as one of the main pressures on the category.
How the market has changed over the past decade
Exhibit 4: The leaders are the same as ten years ago; the price structure and the channels are not
| Dimension | Early 2010s | Mid-2020s |
|---|---|---|
| Leading brands | Yili, Wall’s, Mengniu, Nestlé, Meadow Gold (industry estimates at the time) | Yili, Mengniu and Wall’s lead; dairy newcomers such as Adopt a Cow and tea chains have entered |
| Foreign shop brands | Expansion plans (Dairy Queen, Baskin-Robbins, Cold Stone) | Cold Stone gone, Baskin-Robbins marginal, Häagen-Dazs shops sold; Dairy Queen, Godiva and Venchi hold |
| Market expectations | Forecasts of RMB 100 billion by 2015 (Euromonitor, as quoted at the time) | Packaged retail sales of RMB 49.8 billion in 2018 (GlobalData); 2.8% CAGR in value expected for 2025-2029 (Mintel) |
| Consumption per person | About 1 liter a year, against about 22 in the US (estimates at the time) | 1.62 kg a year in 2018 (GlobalData); frequency remains low |
| Price structure | Low-price bars and foreign premium shops | Premium boom (2018-2021), backlash (2022), reset around RMB 5 to 8 |
| Channels | Supermarkets, small shops, branded parlors | Convenience stores, instant retail, e-commerce, tea chains |
Sources: Fortune China (2013), GlobalData (2020), Mintel (2025) and the media cited in this article; table designed by Daxue Consulting.
Daxue Take: implications for foreign ice cream brands
The Chinese ice cream market appears to have entered a more mature phase. Demand is broad but infrequent, prices have been reset, and a foreign origin no longer supports a price premium on its own. Several implications follow, each depending on the brand’s starting position.
A foreign origin is no longer a positioning. Local brands now offer comparable quality and more locally relevant flavors at lower prices. For foreign brands that entered China on the strength of their origin, the priority may be to define a specific role (gifting, indulgence, health, or children) and to support it with product evidence rather than heritage alone.
Price transparency has become part of the product. Since 2022, an unclear price in an impulse channel has carried a reputational risk. We expect visible pricing on pack and at the freezer to weigh in brand choice alongside taste. This matters most for brands priced above the RMB 5 to 8 band in convenience stores; it matters less in gifting channels, where a high price is expected.
Freezer access is a structural barrier. For brands without a national freezer network, channels that do not require owned cold equipment may offer a more realistic entry route: instant retail, membership warehouse clubs, cafés and foodservice. The trade-off is lower visibility at the point of impulse purchase. In practice, the take-home format (tubs and multipacks sold online and in warehouse clubs) is where a foreign brand can compete without a freezer fleet, because the purchase is planned rather than impulsive.
Shop economics depend on density or exclusivity. Among foreign brands, those that held in retail either run a dense, lower-cost network (Dairy Queen) or a small, very premium one (Godiva, Venchi). Brands considering their own shops may find the middle price range, around RMB 30 per scoop in a mall, the hardest to sustain under current rent and competition. This observation is based on a limited number of cases and may change with mall rents and consumer sentiment.
Licensing store operations is one option, not a template. The Häagen-Dazs agreement shows that a foreign brand can hand shop operations to a Chinese operator while keeping control of the product. This model is more likely to suit brands whose value lies in the product and the brand than in the in-store experience. It requires strict control of quality standards, pricing and brand use, and its results under new operators are not yet known.
Flavor calendars favor local and seasonal references. Lychee, jasmine and matcha launches, often tied to cultural moments, have been effective for Wall’s and Adopt a Cow. For foreign brands with a global range, the question is how much local adaptation their supply chain allows, and how quickly.
Lower-tier cities require their own price logic. Penetration is rising fastest outside tier-1 cities, but the reference price there is often a RMB 2 cone from a tea chain. Brands targeting these markets may need a distinct format or pack size rather than the tier-1 range at the same price.
Questions for leadership teams considering China:
- Which segment (impulse, take-home, foodservice, shops) does the brand intend to win, and what is the consumption of that segment?
- What role justifies the brand’s price compared with local alternatives in the same channel?
- Which channels allow the brand to sell without owning cold equipment, and at what cost of visibility?
- How fast can the brand launch and withdraw local flavors?
Testing two or three flavors with consumers in a tier-1 and a tier-3 city, and benchmarking prices in the freezers of both, is a practical first step before committing to a range. Daxue Consulting supports food and beverage brands on these questions through consumer research and market research.
What to watch next
- Full-year results of Yili and Mengniu, to confirm whether ice cream continues to grow while liquid milk declines.
- The first summer season of Häagen-Dazs shops under new operators, as an indicator of whether the licensing model can restore shop profitability.
- The RMB 5 to 8 price band, as dairy and cocoa costs move and as brands test lower price points to regain volume.
- Instant retail volumes for frozen products, which will show whether cold-chain delivery can reduce the weight of the freezer barrier.
- The strategy of The Magnum Ice Cream Company in China as an independent company, in the one core market where it does not rank first.
FAQ about the ice cream market in China
How large is the ice cream market in China? Measured by consumption, packaged ice cream retail sales reached RMB 49.8 billion in 2018, according to GlobalData. Mintel forecasts growth of 2.8% a year in value between 2025 and 2029. These figures exclude soft serve sold by tea chains and parlors, which represents a significant additional segment.
Which ice cream brands lead in China? Yili is the market leader, followed by Wall’s (The Magnum Ice Cream Company) and Mengniu. Yili’s cold drinks revenue reached RMB 9.43 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 13.0% year-on-year.
What is an “ice cream assassin” (雪糕刺客)? It is a nickname Chinese shoppers gave in 2022 to expensive ice cream bars placed among cheaper ones in convenience store freezers, where the price only appeared at the checkout. The backlash pushed premium brands such as Zhongxuegao to lower their prices.
How much does ice cream cost in China? Prices range from RMB 2 for a fresh soft-serve cone at Mixue to around RMB 5 to 8 for most packaged bars. Premium shop brands charge more: around RMB 55 a scoop at Godiva and close to RMB 100 average spend at Venchi.
Which foreign ice cream brands left China? Cold Stone Creamery has had no shop open in mainland China since about 2024, after closing 27 Shanghai shops in 2017. Baskin-Robbins kept about eight shops. In June 2026, General Mills agreed to sell its Häagen-Dazs shop network in mainland China to an investor group including the tea chain Ningji, while keeping the retail and foodservice business.
How fast is the Chinese ice cream market growing? Slowly. Mintel expects packaged ice cream sales to grow 2.8% a year in value and 1.8% in volume over 2025-2029. Growth comes mainly from lower-tier cities, new flavors and cold-chain delivery, while consumption frequency in tier-1 cities is declining.
| About Daxue Consulting |
|---|
| Daxue Consulting is a market research and strategy consulting firm focused on China. For food and beverage brands, the firm sizes consumption by segment, benchmarks prices across channels and city tiers, and tests products with Chinese consumers through store checks, in-depth interviews and sensory tests. Learn more about our market research methodologies or contact our team. |
